While it's been a slow news week in the Apple world, plenty of journalists and pundits have been speculating that the MacBook Neo is a runaway success. Actually, some suggest the Neo is so successful that Apple might not have made enough to meet demand and they may need to restart production of the A18 Pro chip. This all seems unlikely.
Are they sold out? Not yet, but they're currently taking 2 to 3 weeks to ship (Apple does over estimate shipping times)—that could just be an indication that the first batch sold out and more are being built as we speak (one has to wonder if any of the other parts will take time to source, particularly the case). Is it likely Apple didn't plan for whatever sales the Neo is achieving? Unlikely, this is what they're good at, but it could end up speeding up their timelines.
The one report that suggests Apple is close to selling out should obviously be taken with a grain of salt. The MacBook Neo uses a chip first produced in 2024 for the iPhone 16 and 16 Pro using the 3 nanometre process at TSMC—a binned chip assumed to be otherwise unused. (The A18 Pro chip with all 6 GPU cores was used in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max, while nothing else has so far used the 5 core GPU variant). Production of both the A18 and A18 Pro chips has likely long since stopped (the iPhone 16 is the only device still for sale, it uses the A18 and what's for sale was likely made some time ago), and capacity for the popular process is sold out.
Jason Snell over at Six Colors & the Upgrade Podcast was pretty clear that Apple has backup plans, or rather there's no need to panic Apple knows what it's doing.
There's a lot to unpack and we're unlikely to ever get the full picture until the next announcement. If we had to guess, Apple has the next revision already planned out and they will shift production when needed. Assuming it's true that the MacBook Neo is selling beyond expectations and that Apple might actually run out of these particular binned A18 Pro chips, it's unlikely Apple is worried. Let's not forget Tim Cook's corporate superpower is building just-in-time and streamlined production processes—if there's anyone who's prepared for this, it's Cook. And he's been here before.
Cook joined Apple just two months before the iMac introduction in May 1998. The iMac didn't go on sale until August 15, 1998, and no sooner was it flying off the shelves, the second revision was already in the works. The first generation iMac went through four revisions—anyone who happened to be selling Macs back then would remember having to keep track of which model was on sale. To the public it was iMac. But the specs changed three times. The Rev B iMac was announced on October 26, 1998 (only 72 days after the Rev A was released) followed by the Rev C refresh on January 5, 1999 (71 days later). You'd be forgiven for thinking the first gen iMac only had one refresh on that January date when Jobs introduced the new iMac in five flavors (and Bondi Blue became Blueberry). That revision also got a speed bump from 233 MHz to 266 MHz—the latest G3 processor. That refresh was likely planned well in advance since it was timed for Jobs' MacWorld Expo keynote speech, however the Rev B update was done to update the graphics card which Apple likely didn't do without a good reason. The five flavor iMac also received a speed bump to 333 MHz barely three months after being announced—the Rev D iMac was released April 15, 1999, that's only 100 days for Rev C. (The Rev D iMac stayed on sale the longest, finally being replaced on October 5, 1999—after 173 days). Things slowed down with the second generation iMac, and Apple timed those refreshes with case color changes.
It's only been a month since the Neo went on sale, however Apple is a very different company than it was in 1998-99. For one, they have a lot more customers, a solid supply chain, better control over the parts they use, their own stores and better adoption of online sales (apple.com only started selling Macs online on November 10, 1997). The price of the Neo is also incredible. There had been suggestions the low price might have helped get people in the door, and maybe some customers instead opted for a MacBook Air in order to get enough memory. So if the Neo is instead selling so well that Apple is running out of the A18 Pro, a revision to the A19 or A19 Pro wouldn't be out of character. In fact based on the first generation iMac, we could see several more updates before supply and demand are balanced. Maybe the Neo Rev B was planned to be due out in time for back to school and instead it'll be available for graduation.
Of course over the last two decades we've grown accustomed to Apple taking their time revising the models for sale. They're on a very regular cadence with the iPhone, the company's bread and butter now, while other products can go years between revisions, especially at the low and high end (both the Mac Mini and Mac Pro went years between updates, the Mac Studio is also taking longer to revise). But the Apple Silicon era has certainly improved the update cadence—before Apple had to rely on Intel (and the awkward thermals of certain cylinders).
We're in a new era with Apple, and it's a welcome time, and even if that means some products get refreshed every few months, it's not something we'll need to get used to. Not unless somehow the MacBook Air also becomes even more popular